Shoe Crisis -- I Need Your Opinions!

So I'm going to a wedding tomorrow, and I cannot for the life of me decide which shoes to wear with my dress.  I need your help.

A bunch of pictures are going to follow, and I need your opinion on which shoes to rock at this wedding.

This is the dress and 3 shoe choices outside

Shoe #1 with dress in sunlight

Shoe #2 with dress in sunlight

Shoe #3 with dress in sunlight

These are the shoes

This is the dress inside

Dress and shoes inside

Help!  I think they would all look okay, but I don't know.  I'm leaning toward the black because I have a black wrap/scarf also, but is that too wintery?

Wedding is in the afternoon, if that matters.

Give me your opinions please!